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EUR/USD Current price: 1.0754 Contraction in business activity and new orders softened in the EU at the beginning of the year. The United States ISM Services PMI is foreseen to improve further in January. EUR/USD bearish case gains momentum as Treasury yields run higher. The EUR/USD pair extends its 2024 slump to fresh lows sub-1.0750 amid broad US Dollar demand. Treasury bond yields lead the way in an otherwise quiet week, and as market participants digest the latest central banks’ decisions and the United States (US) employment situation. At the end of the previous week, the USD surged on the back risk aversion, triggered by robust employment figures that followed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s words cooling down expectations for a March rate cut. The US Dollar found extra legs on Monday on resurgent yields. Ahead of Wall Street’s opening, the 10-year Treasury note offered as much as 4.10%, holding nearby, while the 2-year note peaked at 4.46%, now offering 4.44%. Meanwhile, stock markets trade with a positive tone, with most Asian and European indexes holding on to modest gains. Data-wise, the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) published the final Services Producer Manager Index (PMI) surveys for the Eurozone, with… Read More »EUR/USD Forecast: Bears are not willing to give up

EUR/USD trades below 1.0800 to start the week. Near-term technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains intact. ISM will release Services PMI data for January later in the day. EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.0800 in the European morning on Monday. The pair’s technical outlook shows no signs of a potential rebound as the US Dollar (USD) preserves its strength. EUR/USD fell sharply in the second half of the day on Friday and closed the week in negative territory. After the data from the US showed that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 353,000 in January, surpassing the market forecast of 180,000 by a wide margin, the USD registered big gains against its major rivals. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate reduction in March is about 15%, down from 30% early Friday.

The first full week of February will deliver a quieter tone compared to last week. Monday’s ISM Services PMI for January is the main macro driver in focus for the US, while in Asia Pac, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate decision takes to the front on Tuesday. Forget about March Last week’s stage was set exclusively for the Fed, and the primary message was to forget March. While the FOMC left the target rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, it opened the door to rate cuts but the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell almost explicitly pushed back against March’s policy meeting, in line with Futures market pricing (24% probability priced in as of writing). Meanwhile, we have also seen a rate repricing for May’s policy meeting following Friday’s NFP beat, effectively nudging things in favour of a 25bp cut out to June (44bps) rather than May (22bps). Traders also welcomed a slew of US jobs data last week, including increased Job Openings (increased to a little more than 9 million in December 2023; however, with the upward revision of the previous number to 8.93 million, there was little change), weak ADP employment growth (107,000), as well as a -0.4-percentage point drop in the ISM… Read More »Week ahead: What are the markets watching this week?

Gold price nurses losses after Friday’s stellar US NFP-led sell-off.   US Dollar, Treasury bond yields stay firm amid risk-aversion and Powell’s pushback. Gold price remains a ‘buy the dips’ trade, as a strong support holds and daily RSI stays bullish. Gold price is licking its wounds above $2,030 in the Asian trading hours on Monday, having corrected sharply from monthly highs on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) stays supported alongside the US Treasury bond yields, following the blowout US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s interview. Will Middle East geopolitical woes save Gold price? Friday’s US labor market report showed that the US economy added a whopping 353K jobs in January, against the 180K expected. Meanwhile, the previous figure was sharply revised up to 333K. The data suggested unrelenting resilience in the US employment sector, killing hopes of early Fed interest rate cuts. The dialing back of Fed rate cuts for this year received a fresh thrust after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in an interview aired early Monday, dismissed a rate cut next month while pushing back against the timing of the rate cuts. Powell said, “with economy strong, we feel we can approach… Read More »Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD buyers stay hopeful whilst above $2,030

Traders Fair Thailand 2024 was held on February 3, 2024, at the Shangri-La Hotel, Bangkok. InterStellar Group participated as the Prime Sponsor at booth M15-6, attracting numerous traders and investors globally to our booth. They showed keen interest in Interstellar Group’s strategies and trading tools. During the Traders Fair, InterStellar Group presented market analysis techniques to mitigate business risks with the Thai Baht, alongside profit-making secrets and various trading strategies. Our objective is to enhance traders’ comprehension of market trends and refine their trading skills. Furthermore, our booth hosted interactive activities for all attendees to participate in and stand a chance to win enticing prizes. These activities garnered significant interest during the event, contributing to establishing a solid reputation and creating business opportunities for the company. Looking ahead, we will persist in engaging in exhibitions and diverse activities to offer traders a more valuable platform for communication and learning. InterStellar Group is devoted to nurturing strong partnerships with traders to foster the growth and advancement of the trading market. The company will continuously enhance its capabilities and expertise to deliver top-notch and highly effective services to traders. By working collaboratively with traders, our goal is to shape a better future.… Read More »Kickstart your 2024 with a Bang at Trader Fair Thailand 2024 x InterStellar Group Thailand

The Federal Reserve’s rate-setters maintain their outlook for around three quarter-point rate cuts this year, according to Jay Powell, the Fed chair, in an interview aired on Sunday. And definitely not music to the market ears as in the modern-day playbook for stock index operators; 3 cuts versus 6 cuts is terrible news on multiple levels, none more so than the latest market rally was primarily driven by the prospects of aggressive rate cuts in 2024 Powell mentioned on CBS’s 60 Minutes that “almost all” Federal Open Market Committee members anticipate the US central bank to reduce rates from their current 23-year high of 5.25-5.5 percent at some juncture during 2024. Back in December, rate-setters, on average, expected to implement 75 basis points of cuts. Powell indicated in an interview on Thursday that while new projections were not due until March 20, no significant developments had prompted substantial changes in forecasts. He added, “If the economy were to weaken, then we could reduce rates earlier and perhaps faster.” Conversely, “If inflation were to prove more persistent, that could call for us to reduce rates later and perhaps slower.” Initially, markets were anticipating six cuts starting in March. However, Powell’s recent… Read More »The “60 minutes” walk back

AUD/USD bears outperformed in January, guiding the major pair nearly 250 pips lower, or -3.5%. Monthly coil in play From the monthly timeframe, things have been consolidating between two converging lines ($0.7158 and $0.6170) since late 2022. The fact that there is not a steep pole that precedes the formation, this pattern has been identified as a symmetrical triangle (or coil) rather than a bearish pennant. With price fading the upper boundary of this pattern, bears have room to stretch their legs this week/month to the pattern’s lower boundary. Additional technical structure to be aware of on the longer-term chart can be seen from support at $0.6071 and resistance at $0.6959. Another important technical observation for the currency pair on the monthly scale is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rejecting the lower side of the 50.00 centreline in late 2023, signalling that average losses continue to exceed average gains: negative momentum. Daily support vulnerable Having acknowledged price action fading the upper boundary of a coil pattern on the monthly chart, with scope to extend losses, price movement on the daily chart ventured beneath its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in the second half of last week ($0.6572), a bearish trend signal… Read More »Resistance eyed on AUD/USD

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cooled down hopes for a March rate cut. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report shocked markets with 353K new jobs added. EUR/USD bearish case stronger in the long run, 1.0780 immediate downside barrier. Demand for the US Dollar prevailed these last few days, and EUR/USD ended a third consecutive week with losses at around 1.0800, with the pair remaining depressed and bulls having no reasons to buy the Euro. The focus was on the United States (US) as the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its monetary policy decision, while the local macroeconomic calendar was packed with employment-related data. The Fed left the benchmark rate steady at 5.25%-5.5% as largely expected, but noticeable changes in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell triggered risk-off, sending stocks nose-diving and boosting demand for the US Dollar. Powell dropped a bomb But let’s go back to the Fed. The statement was mostly optimistic, as it remarked a solid pace of economic expansion, while policymakers acknowledged inflation has shown signs of easing. On the downside, officials noted the labor market is still strong, despite moderating job gains. Policymakers also dropped the wording on rate hikes and… Read More »EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: US Dollar firmer despite dovish Fed

GBP/USD remained volatile, ending the week below 1.2700. Fed speakers will take centre stage amid a relatively data-light week ahead. Risks skew against the Pound Sterling from a short-term technical perspective. The Pound Sterling (GBP) traded firmly against the US Dollar (USD) following a two-week sluggish momentum. Mid-week, GBP/USD buyers took back charge even as both the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) pushed back against early interest rate cut expectations. However, the pair turned south on Friday following the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Pound Sterling staged an unsustained rebound  GBP/USD managed to hold its ground, having tested the weekly low near the 1.2600 region. The pair enjoyed two-way business but remained confined within a familiar range at around the 1.2700 level. The volatile trading around the pair could be attributed to a bunch of top-tier US economic data combined with the Fed and BoE policy announcements. The market expectations surrounding the Fed interest rate outlook dominated the sentiment in the first half of the week. Data on Tuesday showed US JOLTS Job Openings unexpectedly increased in December and suggested that the labor market still remains resilient, squashing hopes of a March Fed… Read More »GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Pound Sterling’s bullish potential suffers a setback

Gold made a sharp U-turn after climbing to a multi-week high. Near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum. XAU/USD could come under bearish pressure if $2,030 is confirmed as resistance. Gold gathered bullish momentum and climbed to its highest level since early January above $2,060 before erasing a majority of weekly gains on Friday. Comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials could impact the precious metal’s valuation next week in the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases. Gold price declined sharply on Friday Gold benefited from escalating geopolitical tensions and retreating US yields to start the week, gaining more than 0.5% on Monday. News of a drone strike on a US base near Jordan’s border with Syria killing three and injuring more than 20 troops revived fears over a deepening crisis in the Middle East.  Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy announcements, Gold remained relatively calm on Tuesday but managed to close in positive territory. On Wednesday, the Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% as expected. The Fed made significant changes to the policy statement and dropped the section about how policymakers will take into account a range of economic indicators in determining the extent… Read More »Gold Weekly Forecast: Sellers return with a vengeance after US jobs report