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Gold price rises for the second straight day on Thursday, eyes $2,050. US Dollar slips on risk reset and expectations of soft US Core PCE inflation data. The technical setup on the 4H chart remains in favor of Gold buyers. Gold price is trading in the green zone for the second straight day early Thursday, stretching toward the two-week high of $2,041. A broad US Dollar (USD) selling amid an improvement in risk sentiment is underpinning the Gold price ahead of the all-important Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (PCE) data due later in the day. Will US inflation data aid the Gold price upside? China’s stock markets are making a strong comeback after the previous rout, aiding the recovery in the overall market sentiment. The risk-recovery is undermining the US Dollar, allowing Gold price to extend Wednesday’s upswing. The Greenback is also bearing the brunt of the heavy selling seen in the USD/JPY pair after the Japanese Yen rallied hard on the hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Hajime Takata said that “momentum is rising in spring wage talks,” signaling that a policy pivot could be on the cards sooner than expected. That said, Gold price… Read More »Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD could regain $2,050 on soft US Core PCE inflation data

AUD/USD resumed the downward bias and breached 0.6500. Extra pullbacks could shift the attention to the 2024 low near 0.6450. Inflation in January remained sticky around 3.4%. The Australian dollar resumed its downward path after a sluggish start to the week, retreating to the area of multi-day lows in the sub-0.6500 region on Wednesday. This sharp downtick in AUD/USD occurred in response to a noticeable rebound in the Greenback, which lifted the USD Index (DXY) back above the 104.00 hurdle despite the move lower in US yields. Contributing to the decline in spot remained the still unabated corrective move in iron ore prices, which extended their retracement to fresh multi-month lows near the $125.00 mark per tonne against the backdrop of equally persevering concerns around the Chinese housing market. Spot price movements mirrored the subdued performance of the US Dollar, with investors weighing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) implementing monetary easing around June or later. This sentiment was reinforced by recent comments from certain Fed officials as well as solid fundamentals. While potential stimulus measures in China could temporarily support a rebound, sustained recovery news from the country is crucial for providing stronger backing to the Australian dollar… Read More »AUD/USD Forecast: Next on the downside comes the 2024 low

XAU/USD Current price: $2,033.05 The United States’ Gross Domestic Product was downwardly revised to 3.2% in Q4. Investors await an update on US inflation before taking directional compromises. XAU/USD is technically neutral with bulls ready to jump in. Tepid United States (US) macroeconomic data helped XAU/USD bounce from an intraday low of $2,024.38. The bright metal trimmed intraday losses and turned positive for the day, currently changing hands at around $2,033 a troy ounce. The country released the second estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.2% in the last three months of 2023, slightly below the 3.3% previously estimated.  Additionally,   the January Goods Trade Balance posted a deficit of $90.1 billion, worse than the $-89.1  billion posted in December. Meanwhile, stock markets spent the day on the back foot amid a retracement in the tech sector. At the time being, Wall Street trimmed most of its early losses, but the three main indexes remain in the red. The focus shifts now to the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favourite inflation gauge will be out on Thursday and is expected to show… Read More »Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends its consolidation around $2,030

EUR/USD came under bearish pressure and declined toward 1.0800 early Wednesday. Cautious market mood could make it difficult for the pair to rebound. US economic calendar will feature second estimate of Q4 GDP growth. After failing to clear 1.0860 resistance on Tuesday, EUR/USD turned south and declined toward 1.0800 early Wednesday. The pair’s technical outlook points to a bearish tilt in the near term. Market participants will pay close attention to the risk perception and the revision to the US growth data. The broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness helped EUR/USD push higher in the first half of the day on Tuesday. The mixed action in Wall Street’s main indexes and the resilience of the US Treasury bond yields, however, helped the currency hold its ground and didn’t allow the pair to gather bullish momentum. The risk-averse market atmosphere, as reflected by retreating US stock index futures, supports the USD midweek and weighs on EUR/USD.

Markets A batch of US data turned out mixed yesterday. Strong core capital good shipments (investment proxy) compensated for negatively distorted durable goods orders (Boeing). House prices rose in line with forecasts but consumer confidence unexpectedly retreated on a deteriorating current and six month ahead assessment on the economy and jobs. Second tier business sentiment indicators were unable to settle the debate either, especially with a more important one (manufacturing ISM) scheduled later for release on Friday. US yields whipsawed with net daily changes of -2.6 bps (2-y) to +3.2 bps (30-y) eventually. The $42bn 7-y auction went smoother than Monday’s 5-y but didn’t leave a stamp. German Bunds underperformed. They erased intraday gains to push yields 0.4 to 3.3 bps higher to make the curve slightly less inverse. Equities along with major FX didn’t choose a strong direction. The EuroStoxx50 hit new multiyear highs but Wall Street finished mixed. EUR/USD ended the day slightly weaker at 1.0844, DXY an inch higher. Above-consensus Japanese CPI helped JPY close to nothing. USD/JPY (150.51) closed well above the daily lows. Drowned Under. The central bank of New Zealand softened its previous threat to lift rates even further (see below), turning the Kiwi… Read More »New Zealand’s central bank shifts tone, sending Kiwi lower

Gold price finds buyers to once again retest two-week highs of $2,041 early Wednesday. US Dollar extends rebound but weak Treasury bond yields could cap the upside. The 4H technical setup appears constructive, as Gold price awaits US data. Gold price is duplicating the price action seen during Tuesday’s Asian trading, as bulls attempt another comeback early Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) is building on the previous recovery, despite a minor pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, as markets turn tentative ahead of a fresh batch of US GDP and PCE data due later in the day. Gold continues to find dip-demand Markets are seemingly quiet, digesting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) dovish hold decision on the interest rate. Traders take profits off the table on their recent US Dollar short positions, awaiting a fresh directional impetus on the upcoming US economic data releases. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) second estimate for the fourth quarter and the PCE deflator could help the markets reprice the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut bets for this year. Markets are currently pricing in about an 80% chance of a no rate cut by the Fed in the May meeting… Read More »Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD buyers refuse to give up ahead of US macro data

AUD/USD traded in an inconclusive note on Tuesday. Further losses could refocus on the 2024 low near 0.6450. Commodities and China keep the AUD under scrutiny. The Australian dollar resumed the upward trend following a negative start to the week, prompting AUD/USD to chart humble gains around the mid-0.6500s The slight uptick in AUD/USD occurred despite the equally marginal advance in the Greenback, as well as the continuation of the intense sell-off in iron ore prices, which reached multi-month lows near the $126.00 yardstick in response to increasing inventories and heightened uncertainty surrounding the Chinese housing market. Spot price movements also mirrored the lacklustre performance of the US Dollar, as investors continued to assess the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) initiating monetary easing around June or later. This assessment gained traction following the release of strong US inflation data, coupled with persistently hawkish remarks from select Fed officials. Despite the recent recovery of the currency pair, investors are expected to closely monitor developments in China, fluctuations in commodity prices (particularly copper and iron ore), and movements in the Greenback. While potential additional stimulus measures in China could provide temporary support for a rebound, news indicating a more sustainable recovery… Read More »AUD/USD Forecast: Further range bound appears on the cards

Despite a number of financial releases due out this week being quite interesting, on a monetary level, RBNZ’s interest rate decision caught our attention. In contrast to other central banks, the market’s expectations for RBNZ to ease its monetary policy tend to be rather low. The Macroeconomics Currently inflation in New Zealand, despite easing considerably since late 2022, remains potentially one of the main problems of New Zealand’s economy. It’s characteristic how the headline CPI rate slowed down from 7.2% yoy in late 2022 to 4.7% yoy in Q4 2023. Yet the rate is still above the bank’s target range of 2.00±1.00% adding more pressure on the bank to maintain a tight monetary policy for longer. Particularly prices in household & utilities, rent and food inflation tend to remain stubbornly high and above the target, thus posing substantial problems in the everyday life of New Zealanders. Yet given the bank’s dual mandate to watch over inflation and promote maximum employment at the same time, forces us to turn our attention also on New Zealand’s employment market as another factor which will determine the bank’s stance. It should be noted that the unemployment rate is currently at 4% which is considered… Read More »Could RBNZ surprise the markets?

XAU/USD Current price: $2,030.69 Stocks struggle to extend gains after disappointing United States macroeconomic data. According to CB, United States Consumer Confidence fell for the first time in four months. XAU/USD gains downward traction in the near term, but trades within well-familiar levels. Spot Gold holds on to modest gains mid-US afternoon, with XAU/USD trading around $2,030 a troy ounce. The bright metal aroused no interest among market players on Tuesday, as the pair has fluctuated in the $5.00 range ever since the Asian opening. The Greenback remained on the back foot for most of the day, finding short-lived demand ahead of Wall Street’s opening and following United States (US) macroeconomic figures. On the one hand, the country published January Durable Goods Orders, which fell 6.1% in the month, much worse than the 4.5% decline anticipated by market players. On the other hand, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence contracted to 106.7 in February from a downwardly revised 110.9 in January, declining for the first time in four months. Also, and according to the official report,  the Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers’ current perception of the business and labor market environment, fell to 147.2 from 154.9, while the  Expectations Index… Read More »Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hovers around $2,030 extending its consolidative phase

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0858 Market participants await inflation updates that could affect central banks’ upcoming decisions. United States Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence coming up next. EUR/USD is technically bullish in the near term, but sill limited by a critical Fibonacci level. The EUR/USD pair trades lifeless around the 1.0850 level as market players extend the wait-and-see phase ahead of the release of relevant inflation-related figures and a slew of Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers. The US Dollar trades with a soft tone across the FX board, struggling to find direction as stock markets consolidate their recent gains near record highs. The focus remains on the release of the United States (US) January Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is expected to report the largest gain in a year in the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge next Thursday, following an optimistic December report which suggested tempered inflationary pressures. However, the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised with higher-than-anticipated readings, fueling speculation the central bank will further delay rate cuts. At this point, market participants are betting the central bank will trim the current record interest rate next June, but bets can change should… Read More »EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls looking for a reason to add longs