News en

XAU/USD Current price: $1,998.69 Mixed United States macroeconomic figures weighed on the US Dollar. US Treasury yields trimmed early losses and look poised to resume their advance. XAU/USD is losing its positive momentum and struggles to retain the $2,000 mark. Gold price is up on Thursday, peaking intraday at $2,008.30 as the US Dollar came under selling pressure ahead of Wall Street’s opening and following the release of mixed United States (US) figures. XAU/USD, however, lost momentum as the session went by and now struggles to retain the $2,000 mark. The country reported that Retail Sales were down 0.8% MoM in January, much worse than the 0.1% decline anticipated. Furthermore, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 9 rose 212K, better than the 220K expected but still reflecting labor market tightness. On a positive note, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to -2.4 in February from -43.7 in the previous month, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to 5.2 from -10.6 in January in the same period. The news pushed government bond yields further down, as yields eased ever since the day started. At the time being, however, the 10-year Treasury notes offer 4.25%, recovering from an… Read More »Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD buyers losing the battle around $2,000

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0746 European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde testified before the European Parliament. The United States has a packed macroeconomic calendar on Thursday. EUR/USD extends its recovery for a second consecutive day, could approach 1.0800. The EUR/USD pair keeps advancing after briefly piercing the 1.0700 earlier in the week, currently trading at around the 1.0740 figure. Financial markets are in a better mood on Thursday, finally digesting United States (US) hotter-than-expected January inflation and the subsequent rate cut delay. Stock markets and bonds recovered, with gains led by the tech sector. That means yields ease from the peaks set this week, adding modest pressure on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde testified before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. Among other things, Lagarde noted the central bank still needs more information before it can affirm inflation is heading back towards the desired 2%. “The latest data confirms the ongoing disinflation process and is expected to bring us gradually further down over 2024,” Lagarde said, although adding the Governing Council needs additional data to determine whether the decline is sustainable in time. Finally, she repeated what most policymakers have signalled in… Read More »EUR/USD Forecast: Corrective advance to continue in the near term

Japan falls into recession, with Q3 revision highlighting dour growth picture. UK GDP slumps to -0.3%, putting pressure on the BoE. Coinbase earnings in view as Bitcoin gains help boost the trading platform. European markets are on the rise in early trade today, with the FTSE 100 lagging its mainland peers after the UK slumped into a technical recession in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, the UK wasn’t the only country to fall into recession in the fourth quarter, with Japan announcing a disappointing -0.1% Q4 decline alongside a hefty downward revision that put the third quarter figure at a three-year low of -0.8%. While markets continue to expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates after keeping them below zero for eight years, the recent weakness in both growth and inflation data do little to help build a story of strength for the Yen. The UK economy fell into a technical recession in the fourth quarter, with today’s -0.3% figure representing the worst quarterly rate of growth since early 2021. Coming hot on the heels of yesterday’s inflation report that saw both headline and core CPI move sharply lower for the month of January, we are seeing a perfect… Read More »UK GDP slumps to -0.3%, putting pressure on the BoE

In focus today In the US, January retail sales and industrial production data is due for release. Consensus expects some moderation in retail sales growth, even though early credit card data suggests that consumption has remained brisk at the start of the year as well. The NAHB housing market index and initial claims data will also be released today. In the euro area, the European Commission releases its economic forecasts, including GDP and inflation estimates. As the Commission and the ECB use similar models, the projections could give hints of what to expect from the ECB’s staff projections at the March meeting. Additionally, ECB President Lagarde will make public remarks today. An empty Swedish Macro calendar awaits today. However, two Riksbank speakers Erik Thedéen and Anna Breman are set to speak on two different events. Thedéen will kick things off as his event starts 08.30 CET, followed by Breman at 16.20 CET. Both speeches are themed as “The economic situation and current monetary policy”. Economic and market news What happened overnight? In Japan, national accounts for Q4 unexpectedly came in at -0.1% after -0.7% in Q3. The decline stems primarily from weak consumption and capital expenditure. With two consecutive GDP… Read More »All eyes on US Retail Sales

EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 after closing in positive territory on Wednesday. ECB President Lagarde reiterated that they will continue to follow a data-dependent approach. US economic docket will feature Retail Sales and weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Following Tuesday’s sharp decline, EUR/USD staged a technical correction and closed in positive territory on Wednesday. The pair struggles to gather recovery momentum on Thursday and continues to fluctuate below 1.0750 as markets await US data releases. The improving risk mood and retreating US Treasury bond yields made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to build on Tuesday’s rally that was fuelled by the stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. 

It needs to cut interest rates because this debt-riddled economy simply can’t function in a high-rate environment. But the Fed can’t plausibly cut rates with price inflation still far above its target.  As Mike Maharrey explains in this episode of Money Metals’ Midweek Memo, the Fed is damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t. Mike opens the show with a Monty Python movie analogy to highlight the Fed’s dilemma. He then pivots into a breakdown of the January CPI report. He argues that it’s clear from the data that price inflation is far from defeated. The markets were particularly displeased with this CPI print and threw quite a temper tantrum. Mike presents some of the highlights and offers his theory as to why the markets are responding this way.  He notes that it is indeed a strange world when people sell an inflation hedge with evidence of elevated inflation. But it appears the markets are most concerned about getting interest rates down. Mike talks about just one of the reasons why – the skyrocketing interest payments on the national debt. Therein lies the rub. Everybody wants rate cuts. But inflation clearly isn’t dead. This is despite the fact monetary conditions aren’t historically… Read More »The Fed Is between a rock and a hard place [Video]

Gold price turns positive early Thursday, snapping a six-day losing streak.   US Dollar corrects with Treasury bond yields amid mixed Fedspeak, ahead of Retail Sales data.  Gold price remains ‘sell the bounce’ trade as technicals favor sellers. Gold price is building on Wednesday’s rebound from two-month lows of $1,984 early Thursday, as the US Dollar (USD) resumes correction alongside the US Treasury bond yields. Gold price could find fresh support from weak US Retail Sales data The market mood remains mixed so far this Thursday’s trading, as investors assess the conflicting messages from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and its implications on the pricing of the dovish policy pivot this year. The uncertainty around the timing of Fed interest rate cuts, following strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, keeps the corrective mode intact in the US Dollar, as well as, the US Treasury bond yields. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said on Wednesday, the Fed remained confident, but the January CPI numbers show the United States’ path back to 2% inflation “may be a bumpy one.” Barr said that he fully supported what he called a careful approach to considering… Read More »Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rebounds but not out of the woods yet

AUD/USD bounced off yearly lows near 0.6440. The Dollar’s knee-jerk favoured the risk complex. The upcoming Australian jobs report gathers all the attention. The Australian dollar managed to regain some composure and rebounded from Tuesday’s yearly lows near the 0.6440 region vs. the US Dollar (USD), re-shifting its attention to a potential test of the key 0.6500 zone in the short term. The daily bounce in AUD/USD came in tandem with the inconclusive session in the Greenback amidst further investors’ reassessing of a potential start of the Fed’s easing cycle in June, a view that was strengthened further after sticky US inflation figures in January. Despite the ongoing recovery in the pair, Tuesday’s significant retracement to new yearly lows opened the possibility of further near-term weakness in the Aussie dollar, always in response to dynamics around the US Dollar, the ongoing yearly decline in copper and iron ore prices, and persistent uncertainty surrounding the Chinese economy. On a positive note, the recent hawkish stance maintained by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), coupled with a tight labour market and robust fundamentals, should somewhat mitigate downward pressure on the Australian currency. Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish hold at… Read More »AUD/USD Forecast: Recovery targets the 200-day SMA

Australia is expected to have added 30,000 new job positions in January. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock delivered a confident message. AUD/USD bounced modestly from fresh 2024 lows and could extend recovery but remains bearish. Australia will unveil January employment figures on Thursday, alongside February Consumer Inflation Expectations. Market participants anticipate the country has added 30,000 new jobs in the month, after losing 65,100 in December. Breaking down the previous figure, Australia lost roughly 106,600 full-time positions and added around 41,400 part-time ones. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate is foreseen to have ticked higher, from 3.9% to 4%, while the Participation Rate is expected to have advanced to 66.9% from 66.8%. Meanwhile, Consumer Inflation Expectations, released by the Melbourne Institute, stood at 4.5% in January. The higher the figure, the lesser the odds are for a soon-to-come rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Reserve Bank of Australia gaining confidence  The RBA met early in February, and policymakers noted inflation continued to moderate at the end of 2023, but added that it remains too high. Regarding employment, the monetary policy meeting statement reads: “Conditions in the labor market continue to ease gradually, although they remain tighter… Read More »Australian Employment Preview: Upbeat figures may give a temporal boost to the Aussie

XAU/USD Current price: 1,991.05 The market sentiment stabilized following risk-off movements post-US CPI. The latest United States data confirmed the Federal Reserve’s caution stance. XAU/USD is in corrective mode, but bears could still push it lower. Spot Gold extends its yearly slide on Wednesday, trading as low as $1,984.03, a level not seen since last December. XAU/USD recovered the $1,900 mark in the mid-American session as demand for the US Dollar lost steam amid a better market mood. Wall Street is up after plummeting on Tuesday, with the three major indexes posting modest gains. Additionally, government bond yields retreated from the multi-week peaks posted on Tuesday, adding to the USD’s near-term weakness. Market players seem to have accepted the latest day on rate-cut decisions. Global policymakers have been pouring cold water on a looser monetary policy since the last quarter of 2023, but the market bet against them. Their words have been optimistic but cautious, and the message remains unchanged. The difference is macroeconomic data showing that labor markets remain tight, and inflation is above central banks’ target bands. Particularly in the United States (US), the surprise increase in January inflation, following a solid Nonfarm Payrolls report, diluted hopes for… Read More »Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovers after posting a fresh 2024 low